About

The 98th Percentile publishes probabilistic forecasts and analysis on Australian questions using statistical and machine-learning models. Its methods and data sources are published on the Methodology page, and each forecast is scored on the Track Record page once the outcome is known.

The site opens with elections. Its first product is Victoria88-26, a forecast of the 2026 Victorian state election.

Principles

Three rules govern everything published here.

Probabilities, stated as numbers. A forecast is a probability distribution, not a tip. Every estimate carries its plausible range, and no outcome is called “likely” or “safe” in place of a number.

Methods in public, fixed in advance. The models are documented before results are known, assumptions are graded by how well tested they are, and changes are recorded in a dated change log. A reader should never have to take a figure on trust.

Scored, misses included. Every published forecast is compared with the outcome, on the published scoring rules, with nothing dropped.

Who

The 98th Percentile is built and run by John Ward, a Melbourne-based data scientist and statistician.

Contact

Use of AI

I used large language models, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 and Claude Fable 5, to test this work for narrative flow, logical consistency, bias and errors. They also assisted with drafting and with the site’s code. Responsibility for the content is mine alone.

John Ward (The 98th Percentile)