Sport
Weekly Bayesian ratings for Australia’s football codes and the Big Bash. Every fixture gets a win probability. Ladders and finals are simulated in full.
Planned
Team strength is a latent state that evolves through the season. Calibration is reported at season’s end.
AFL
A hierarchical state-space model of team strength, with venue and travel effects. Ladder and finals simulation from public match data.
NRL
The same machinery applied to rugby league. The code has far less public modelling than the AFL.
Cricket: BBL
Ball-by-ball data supports the deep end. Live win probability, chase simulation and player projection.
The honest note
AFL analytics is a crowded and sophisticated field. Detailed player statistics sit behind an exclusive licence. Our edge is method and transparency, not secret data. So our first sport products will lead with rugby league and cricket. There the public data runs deeper and the public modelling runs thinner.