Economics
The numbers households actually feel: interest rates, prices, petrol and jobs. Forecast probabilistically and checked publicly against what happened.
Institutional forecasters publish point estimates and move on. We publish distributions and keep score.
RBA Rate Tracker
Meeting-by-meeting probabilities for the cash rate. Our model sits beside the market-implied odds, with calibration reported for both.
CPI Nowcast
Monthly and quarterly inflation nowcasts from live price feeds for fuel, groceries and energy offers. Published ahead of each ABS release.
Petrol Cycles
The capital-city discounting cycle, predicted daily. Which day to fill up, city by city, with the methodology published.
Labour Nowcast
A monthly labour force nowcast from job-ads indices and vacancy data. Published ahead of each ABS release.
What we will not forecast
Exchange rates and share prices. Both markets are efficient enough that public forecasts are indistinguishable from tipping. We rule them out as a point of principle. Where a market already prices an outcome, as rate futures price the RBA, we show the market’s number beside ours. The calibration record decides between them.