Real Estate
Australia’s favourite subject, treated as a forecasting problem.
Planned
Hierarchical spatial models of prices and rents built on public records. A clearance-rate nowcast that lands before the Saturday evening news.
Auction Clearance Nowcast
A weekly clearance-rate prediction for Melbourne and Sydney. Published Friday and scored Saturday night.
Dwelling Prices
Suburb-level price models from state valuation and sales records. Distributions, not medians, with the methodology in the open.
Rents
The data is thinner and the commentary is worse. Yet renting households feel the market most directly. Bond-board data, modelled properly.
Why this belongs here
Australian property commentary is dominated by index providers. Their methods are opaque and their incentives are not yours. The hierarchical spatial machinery behind our electorate-level election modelling transfers directly to suburbs. Unlike the index providers, our forecasts stay archived and get scored.